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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.75vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.66+5.28vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.81+3.15vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+4.79vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.51+4.92vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.94-0.65vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.01-1.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy0.88+0.88vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.73+0.04vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27-2.58vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.31-3.53vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.21-4.08vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-6.13vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.18-2.13vs Predicted
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15American University-1.62-0.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75U. S. Naval Academy2.6021.5%1st Place
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7.28Washington College1.666.0%1st Place
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6.15Old Dominion University1.819.2%1st Place
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8.79St. Mary's College of Maryland0.904.1%1st Place
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9.92Hampton University0.512.9%1st Place
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5.35Georgetown University1.9411.8%1st Place
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5.14Georgetown University2.0112.2%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Naval Academy0.883.9%1st Place
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9.04Virginia Tech0.734.0%1st Place
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7.42George Washington University1.275.5%1st Place
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7.47College of Charleston1.315.3%1st Place
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7.92Christopher Newport University1.214.8%1st Place
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6.87Old Dominion University1.576.8%1st Place
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11.87William and Mary-0.181.8%1st Place
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14.15American University-1.620.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 21.5% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Kleha | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 1.8% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 4.0% |
| Jack Corbett | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 12.2% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Young | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 1.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Miles Wolff | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Brian Fox | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Dutilly | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 34.5% | 15.2% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 12.3% | 73.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.