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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.61+3.61vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.49+6.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.33+2.51vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.57+3.95vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-1.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.67-1.42vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.71+0.44vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.47+3.42vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.47-0.57vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.46-1.79vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.24-1.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.82vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland1.02-3.07vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.15-2.31vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.47-1.89vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.88-1.91vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.05-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.61Fordham University2.610.2%1st Place
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8.08University of Pennsylvania1.490.1%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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7.95SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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3.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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4.58George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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7.44Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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11.42Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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8.43George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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8.21Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.13Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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9.93University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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12.69Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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14.11SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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15.09Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Ferguson | 15.6% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Hughes | 10.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 21.1% | 20.6% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 14.0% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Duggan | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 4.8% |
| Madison Oleson | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Collin Clark | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Alex Gatto | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| David Bigelow | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Stephanie Alp | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 16.7% | 9.7% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 22.9% | 26.5% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 20.9% | 43.1% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.