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📊 Prediction Accuracy

17.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Brendan O'Leary 22.4% 17.3% 13.7% 13.8% 10.4% 9.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Adelaide Ferguson 14.2% 14.2% 13.8% 12.3% 12.4% 9.2% 7.0% 6.6% 3.2% 3.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 5.3% 5.6% 6.5% 8.1% 8.8% 8.5% 7.9% 7.9% 9.8% 6.5% 7.9% 7.3% 4.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Nicholas Wallinder 5.7% 5.5% 6.1% 6.7% 5.3% 7.8% 9.0% 6.4% 8.4% 10.9% 8.6% 6.7% 4.9% 4.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Madison Oleson 4.6% 5.2% 6.0% 6.7% 6.8% 7.3% 7.4% 8.2% 8.3% 8.5% 8.6% 7.4% 5.0% 5.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.5%
Hannah McNomee 13.9% 14.3% 13.1% 12.3% 12.0% 9.3% 8.3% 6.5% 4.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Gatto 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% 5.5% 5.4% 9.5% 6.4% 11.0% 9.9% 9.5% 7.2% 7.2% 3.8% 2.6% 0.5%
Hannah Hughes 11.8% 12.2% 11.7% 9.3% 9.1% 10.3% 8.4% 8.0% 6.8% 4.9% 2.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Padraig Loughlin 2.9% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.6% 6.7% 7.9% 7.9% 8.1% 9.2% 8.0% 9.1% 8.5% 5.9% 2.4% 0.8%
Catherine Duggan 1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 4.4% 4.2% 6.4% 6.3% 7.4% 8.7% 11.8% 11.6% 12.1% 10.4% 4.4%
Collin Clark 4.6% 4.6% 5.2% 5.9% 6.7% 6.2% 7.2% 7.8% 8.0% 8.4% 9.1% 8.5% 7.4% 6.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.1%
David Bigelow 2.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.2% 5.2% 5.2% 7.0% 5.4% 6.1% 5.9% 10.8% 9.1% 10.7% 9.3% 6.7% 3.6% 1.3%
Caroline Garth 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 5.6% 5.9% 6.9% 9.4% 8.3% 8.5% 9.3% 7.9% 7.7% 6.2% 4.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0.3%
Stephanie Alp 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.6% 4.6% 4.0% 4.3% 7.3% 9.9% 12.5% 16.1% 15.5% 10.2%
Cody Murphy 0.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 6.8% 8.7% 12.6% 15.9% 16.9% 11.7%
Heather Grosso 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.9% 3.3% 4.7% 7.4% 7.6% 16.4% 22.5% 25.6%
Patrick Stege 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 3.3% 4.9% 6.2% 10.0% 20.2% 44.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.