Race 10A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Jack Corbett 11.9% 10.8% 10.4% 11.2% 10.4% 9.8% 9.2% 7.3% 6.0% 5.4% 3.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Miles Wolff 6.3% 6.7% 7.0% 6.6% 7.0% 7.5% 8.5% 8.5% 9.2% 8.5% 8.4% 6.4% 6.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Stewart Gurnell 7.0% 6.6% 7.1% 7.1% 8.3% 7.8% 7.8% 7.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 6.6% 5.9% 2.7% 0.2%
Can Dilikoglu 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.8% 5.5% 5.6% 7.0% 6.7% 8.5% 10.7% 15.5% 15.3% 4.2%
Daniel Hughes 11.1% 12.2% 11.5% 10.7% 10.3% 9.6% 8.3% 7.4% 6.3% 5.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Parker Purrington 6.9% 7.3% 7.5% 8.5% 7.8% 8.8% 8.3% 9.7% 8.8% 8.1% 6.8% 5.5% 3.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Nathan Smith 22.8% 17.2% 14.9% 13.3% 9.3% 7.3% 5.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oscar MacGillivray 5.5% 6.8% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8% 8.2% 8.1% 5.8% 4.1% 0.4%
Brian Fox 4.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 7.0% 6.0% 8.8% 7.3% 8.6% 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 7.1% 3.6% 1.1%
Aidan Young 3.2% 3.8% 3.7% 4.7% 5.2% 6.0% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 10.2% 10.9% 12.7% 8.8% 2.1%
Colin MacGillivray 3.2% 4.7% 4.3% 5.5% 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.8% 11.0% 7.8% 2.1%
Sam Dutilly 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.5% 6.2% 9.0% 13.2% 32.8% 14.5%
Noyl Odom 9.5% 8.9% 9.6% 10.7% 9.4% 10.0% 8.8% 8.3% 7.0% 6.3% 4.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Max Kleha 4.2% 4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.9% 6.3% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3% 9.2% 10.2% 11.1% 7.8% 1.3%
Jacob Juros 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% 11.3% 73.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.