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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+2.70vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.61+2.59vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.71+4.47vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.57+3.89vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.47+3.10vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.67-1.41vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.24+2.07vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.33-2.62vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+0.36vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.47+1.56vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.46-3.58vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland1.02-3.23vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.49-5.73vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.15-2.32vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.05-3.19vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.47-2.76vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University-0.88-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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4.59Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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7.47Webb Institute1.710.1%1st Place
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7.89SUNY Maritime College1.570.1%1st Place
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8.1George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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4.59George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.38U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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11.56Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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8.42Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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12.68Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.24SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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15.1Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan O'Leary | 22.4% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 14.2% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Madison Oleson | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.9% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Hannah Hughes | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Catherine Duggan | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 4.4% |
| Collin Clark | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| David Bigelow | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Caroline Garth | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Stephanie Alp | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 10.2% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 11.7% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 16.4% | 22.5% | 25.6% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 20.2% | 44.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.