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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+2.74vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.33+3.48vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.67+1.60vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.61+0.79vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.89+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.49+2.39vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.46+1.45vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69-0.51vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.47+2.79vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.24-0.98vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland1.02-1.06vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.47-3.71vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.47+1.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-4.56vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.88-0.04vs Predicted
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16Queen's University0.15-3.37vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.05-5.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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5.48U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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4.6George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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4.79Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.86SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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8.45Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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7.49Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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11.79Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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9.02Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.94University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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8.29George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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14.18SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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14.96Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.63Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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12.97SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan O'Leary | 21.5% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.6% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 14.6% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Garth | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Collin Clark | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Duggan | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 4.7% |
| Alex Gatto | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| David Bigelow | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Madison Oleson | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 24.1% | 26.7% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 19.7% | 43.3% |
| Stephanie Alp | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 9.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 17.3% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.