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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.89+5.80vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.61+2.69vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.49+5.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.33+1.59vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.46+3.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+3.47vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.24+2.18vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.47+0.22vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.67-4.31vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland1.02-0.25vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-7.04vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.15+0.57vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.47+1.21vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.47-2.21vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.88-1.04vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.05-4.08vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.69-10.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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4.69Fordham University2.610.2%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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5.59U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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8.22Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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9.18Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.22George Washington University1.470.1%1st Place
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4.69George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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3.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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12.57Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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14.21SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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11.79Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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14.96Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.92SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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7.71Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Nothacker | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 15.1% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Hughes | 11.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Clark | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Madison Oleson | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Hannah McNomee | 12.3% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Bigelow | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 20.6% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Alp | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 14.3% | 9.6% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 23.7% | 26.8% |
| Catherine Duggan | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 5.1% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 12.0% | 19.5% | 43.6% |
| Cody Murphy | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 11.5% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.