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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.61+3.69vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.49+6.15vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.67+1.61vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.69+3.65vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-1.24vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.24+3.28vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.33-1.44vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.89-1.17vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.46-0.49vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-0.80vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland1.02-1.05vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.47-3.71vs Predicted
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13Queen's University0.15-0.43vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.47+0.26vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.47-3.38vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.88-1.89vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.05-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69Fordham University2.610.2%1st Place
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8.15University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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4.61George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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7.65Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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3.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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9.28Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.56U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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6.83SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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8.51Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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9.95University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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8.29George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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12.57Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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14.26SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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11.62Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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15.11Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.96SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Ferguson | 15.1% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Hannah McNomee | 14.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 20.3% | 20.0% | 16.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Hannah Hughes | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Collin Clark | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| David Bigelow | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Madison Oleson | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Alp | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| Catherine Duggan | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 5.2% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 44.5% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.