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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.46+7.23vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.24+6.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.33+2.53vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-0.12vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+2.49vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.49+2.42vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.47+4.68vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.89-1.14vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland1.02+1.09vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-0.75vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.47-2.57vs Predicted
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13Queen's University0.15-0.44vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.88+1.01vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.47-0.71vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.05-3.18vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.67-12.36vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.61-13.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.23Cornell University1.460.1%1st Place
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8.98Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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3.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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7.49Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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8.42University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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11.68Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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6.86SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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10.09University of Maryland1.020.0%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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8.43George Washington University1.470.1%1st Place
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12.56Queen's University0.150.0%1st Place
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15.01Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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14.29SUNY Stony Brook-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.82SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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4.64George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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4.83Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Clark | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Alex Gatto | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Hannah Hughes | 10.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 20.3% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Catherine Duggan | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% |
| John Nothacker | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| David Bigelow | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Madison Oleson | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Alp | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 8.8% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 20.3% | 44.6% |
| Heather Grosso | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 21.4% | 28.9% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 19.0% | 10.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.3% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 13.5% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.