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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.91+6.50vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.00vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.16+3.68vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.33+5.65vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.81+2.03vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.82+0.95vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.42-2.20vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.35-2.94vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.73+1.54vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.01-3.68vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.96-4.58vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.18-6.05vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.05-3.24vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-4.64vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.51-7.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.5Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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5.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.68Yale University3.160.1%1st Place
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9.65Georgetown University2.330.0%1st Place
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8.03Harvard University2.810.1%1st Place
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7.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.820.1%1st Place
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5.8Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.06Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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11.54Connecticut College1.730.0%1st Place
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7.32Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Vermont2.960.1%1st Place
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6.95Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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10.76Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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10.36Roger Williams University2.090.0%1st Place
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8.99University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 13.6% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Urska Kosir | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Merritt Moran | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% |
| Morgan Russom | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| Chloe Lepert | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Hannah Polster | 12.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Allyson Donahue | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Rebecca Quirke | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 27.3% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Amina Brown | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 19.5% |
| Rachel Perry | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 15.9% |
| Colleen Hartman | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.