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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+7.59vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.73+5.00vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.44+5.32vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.57+3.62vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.88+1.35vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+7.92vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.49+1.23vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.72+3.09vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.55+3.05vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.47+2.43vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.73-3.87vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.51+0.40vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.47-4.65vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.98-3.95vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida2.68-3.58vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.11-2.19vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.81-2.14vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.74-6.65vs Predicted
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19Old Dominion University3.70-11.98vs Predicted
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20University of Buffalo0.75-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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7.0College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.32Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.62Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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6.35Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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13.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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8.23Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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11.09University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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12.43Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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7.13Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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12.4George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.35Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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10.05Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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11.42University of South Florida2.680.0%1st Place
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13.81University of Wisconsin2.110.0%1st Place
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14.86Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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11.35SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.02Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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17.99University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Davidson | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Max Nickbarg | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 9.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 7.7% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Cushing | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% |
| Adam Keally | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
| Sean Golden | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| AJ Degen | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Soren Walljasper | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 7.8% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 17.8% | 13.0% |
| Mike Carr | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 57.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.