Race 3B

chris-loder

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hunter Johnstone 19.1% 17.3% 17.8% 14.5% 12.1% 7.3% 6.1% 2.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Ben Weigel 25.8% 23.6% 15.9% 13.2% 8.4% 6.5% 3.2% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Henry O'Brien 9.3% 7.4% 10.4% 10.0% 10.9% 11.1% 12.9% 10.4% 10.7% 4.4% 2.2% 0.3%
Lauren Cefali 6.8% 9.8% 9.8% 11.3% 11.7% 11.9% 11.9% 9.4% 9.0% 5.4% 2.7% 0.3%
Conor Fowler 8.8% 8.4% 11.1% 11.3% 11.1% 13.2% 11.7% 9.3% 6.7% 5.4% 2.7% 0.3%
Jesse Thomas 7.0% 9.1% 8.2% 9.5% 10.3% 11.7% 11.3% 11.1% 10.3% 6.9% 4.3% 0.3%
Philip Koch 5.0% 6.0% 6.2% 7.6% 8.6% 9.5% 10.3% 12.2% 12.7% 11.7% 7.4% 2.8%
Alexander Giordano 10.7% 9.3% 10.6% 11.3% 12.0% 10.6% 10.7% 11.3% 6.3% 4.2% 2.4% 0.6%
Robert Queisser 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 5.0% 7.2% 7.7% 9.1% 13.3% 19.2% 18.0% 10.3%
Alexander Strothe 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4% 6.7% 6.4% 8.6% 11.2% 13.2% 17.7% 14.4% 6.1%
Michael Haidar 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 2.4% 3.8% 4.7% 7.4% 18.2% 56.9%
Emmet Todd 0.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% 6.5% 10.7% 17.0% 27.3% 22.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.