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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+3.89vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.21+6.48vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.56+3.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+2.13vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.09+4.34vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+3.12vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.48+2.29vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26+1.27vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.18+0.36vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.77+1.23vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.25-1.02vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.70-5.54vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.44-4.08vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.32+0.24vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.25-6.23vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.56-7.25vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles1.30-8.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89Yale University2.4216.0%1st Place
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8.48Tulane University2.215.9%1st Place
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6.18Boston College2.5610.8%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy2.165.9%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.038.8%1st Place
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10.34University of South Florida1.094.2%1st Place
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10.12Boston University1.144.4%1st Place
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10.29Bowdoin College1.484.2%1st Place
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10.27North Carolina State University1.264.5%1st Place
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10.36Northeastern University1.183.3%1st Place
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12.23Northwestern University0.771.9%1st Place
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10.98Tufts University1.253.4%1st Place
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7.46Cornell University1.707.0%1st Place
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9.92Old Dominion University1.444.5%1st Place
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15.24SUNY Maritime College-0.320.9%1st Place
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9.77Roger Williams University1.255.3%1st Place
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9.75University of Pennsylvania1.564.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Los Angeles1.305.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 16.0% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% |
| Abbie Carlson | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Morgan Essex | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 48.3% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Amanda Majernik | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.