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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.21+7.38vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.16+6.56vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+1.88vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.56+2.14vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.48+5.33vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.09+4.35vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.70+0.50vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.44+1.82vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14+1.26vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.98vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.30-1.75vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.25-2.44vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.25-1.80vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.26-3.66vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.18-4.75vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.56-6.45vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.77-4.78vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.32-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Tulane University2.216.3%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.165.5%1st Place
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4.88Yale University2.4216.1%1st Place
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6.14Boston College2.5611.6%1st Place
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10.33Bowdoin College1.483.9%1st Place
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10.35University of South Florida1.093.6%1st Place
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7.5Cornell University1.707.0%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University1.444.5%1st Place
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10.26Boston University1.144.0%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.039.3%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Los Angeles1.304.8%1st Place
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9.56Roger Williams University1.254.5%1st Place
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11.2Tufts University1.253.1%1st Place
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10.34North Carolina State University1.263.9%1st Place
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10.25Northeastern University1.184.5%1st Place
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9.55University of Pennsylvania1.564.3%1st Place
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12.22Northwestern University0.772.2%1st Place
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15.4SUNY Maritime College-0.320.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 16.1% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ellie Maus | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 4.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Abbie Carlson | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
| Amanda Majernik | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 11.8% |
| Morgan Essex | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 51.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.