Race 3A

commonwealth-invitational

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Colby Vickerson 6.1% 9.0% 15.2% 14.7% 14.9% 15.8% 10.5% 7.7% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Lindsay Wright 3.7% 3.9% 6.3% 8.8% 10.0% 11.4% 13.8% 14.3% 12.9% 11.2% 3.7%
Casey Gowrie 23.1% 28.1% 21.2% 13.6% 7.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lewis Fowler-Gerace 4.5% 6.6% 8.5% 12.2% 11.9% 16.5% 14.1% 11.2% 8.9% 4.3% 1.3%
Rinchen Harrison 6.6% 7.3% 11.8% 13.4% 11.8% 13.4% 14.2% 10.2% 6.4% 4.1% 0.8%
Kyle Brego 4.8% 8.2% 10.1% 13.1% 14.4% 13.1% 11.8% 11.2% 6.2% 5.5% 1.6%
Zachary Karakouzian 4.3% 4.8% 4.3% 5.4% 11.2% 10.5% 11.6% 15.4% 15.9% 10.4% 6.2%
Scott Barbano 43.3% 28.4% 14.7% 8.6% 3.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liam Greene 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 2.9% 3.6% 2.6% 6.3% 7.7% 13.3% 19.2% 40.6%
Kelsey Martins 1.3% 1.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.9% 5.4% 8.1% 10.4% 15.0% 22.7% 24.2%
Holly McGarr 1.2% 1.0% 3.2% 4.0% 6.0% 6.6% 7.7% 10.9% 17.1% 21.2% 21.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.