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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+6.75vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.70+4.50vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.56+2.32vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.21+3.52vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.48+4.40vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.44+3.04vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.79vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14+1.50vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-3.09vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.18-0.75vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.68vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.26-2.94vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.25-4.12vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.77-2.79vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.32-0.89vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.25-5.83vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.09-7.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Yale University2.4217.2%1st Place
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8.75University of Pennsylvania1.725.9%1st Place
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7.5Cornell University1.706.5%1st Place
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6.32Boston College2.569.2%1st Place
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8.52Tulane University2.216.0%1st Place
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10.4Bowdoin College1.483.7%1st Place
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10.04Old Dominion University1.444.4%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy2.165.2%1st Place
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10.5Boston University1.143.1%1st Place
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6.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.039.4%1st Place
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10.25Northeastern University1.184.0%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Los Angeles1.305.5%1st Place
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10.06North Carolina State University1.264.5%1st Place
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9.88Roger Williams University1.254.7%1st Place
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12.21Northwestern University0.772.2%1st Place
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15.11SUNY Maritime College-0.321.1%1st Place
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11.17Tufts University1.252.8%1st Place
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10.48University of South Florida1.094.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 17.2% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Ellie Maus | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% |
| Emily Bornarth | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 11.9% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 48.4% |
| Abbie Carlson | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.