← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University2.61+3.68vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University2.08+6.45vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+5.24vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.20+2.11vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston1.45+3.81vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University1.32+3.82vs Predicted
-
7University of Michigan1.57+2.71vs Predicted
-
8Dartmouth College1.87-0.33vs Predicted
-
9University of Hawaii0.99+1.93vs Predicted
-
10Brown University1.80+0.03vs Predicted
-
11University of Vermont1.31+0.35vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-2.76vs Predicted
-
13University of Rhode Island0.71-0.72vs Predicted
-
14Jacksonville University1.97-6.16vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-4.36vs Predicted
-
16Connecticut College0.65-3.58vs Predicted
-
17University of Rhode Island0.88-6.10vs Predicted
-
18Fordham University0.90-6.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.68Stanford University2.6116.2%1st Place
-
8.45Harvard University2.085.9%1st Place
-
8.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.135.9%1st Place
-
6.11Georgetown University2.2011.2%1st Place
-
8.81College of Charleston1.455.9%1st Place
-
9.82George Washington University1.324.5%1st Place
-
9.71University of Michigan1.574.6%1st Place
-
7.67Dartmouth College1.877.5%1st Place
-
10.93University of Hawaii0.993.4%1st Place
-
10.03Brown University1.804.3%1st Place
-
11.35University of Vermont1.313.4%1st Place
-
9.24St. Mary's College of Maryland1.355.1%1st Place
-
12.28University of Rhode Island0.712.2%1st Place
-
7.84Jacksonville University1.977.1%1st Place
-
10.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.303.6%1st Place
-
12.42Connecticut College0.652.8%1st Place
-
10.9University of Rhode Island0.883.4%1st Place
-
11.88Fordham University0.902.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 16.2% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Emma Kaneti | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Dana Haig | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Piper Holthus | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Grace Squires | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Jenna Probst | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Grace Gear | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% |
| Katherine Bennett | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 16.4% |
| Charlotte Rose | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Ella Withington | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 16.7% |
| Molly Coghlin | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.