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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.97+6.86vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.31+9.32vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.61+1.53vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.65+8.51vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan1.57+4.60vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.20+0.12vs Predicted
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72.13+1.08vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+2.44vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.08-0.27vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.80+0.10vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.32-1.18vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.88-1.21vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.87-5.18vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-4.68vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.45-6.13vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii0.99-5.18vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.90-5.12vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island0.71-5.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.86Jacksonville University1.977.2%1st Place
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11.32University of Vermont1.312.8%1st Place
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4.53Stanford University2.6117.7%1st Place
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12.51Connecticut College0.651.8%1st Place
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9.6University of Michigan1.574.6%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University2.2010.2%1st Place
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8.082.137.6%1st Place
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10.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.0%1st Place
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8.73Harvard University2.085.8%1st Place
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10.1Brown University1.804.0%1st Place
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9.82George Washington University1.323.8%1st Place
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10.79University of Rhode Island0.884.0%1st Place
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7.82Dartmouth College1.877.5%1st Place
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9.32St. Mary's College of Maryland1.354.5%1st Place
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8.87College of Charleston1.455.3%1st Place
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10.82University of Hawaii0.994.0%1st Place
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11.88Fordham University0.902.9%1st Place
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12.39University of Rhode Island0.712.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Rose | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Grace Gear | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 17.7% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aili Moffet | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 17.2% |
| Jenna Probst | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Piper Holthus | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Ella Withington | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| Emma Kaneti | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% |
| Molly Coghlin | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Katherine Bennett | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Grace Squires | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% |
| Payton Canavan | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.7% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.