Race 3B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Hollister Poole 16.1% 23.1% 20.4% 17.6% 12.5% 6.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MaryClaire Kiernan 45.5% 25.8% 16.3% 8.2% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mara Porter 11.7% 14.0% 18.2% 17.0% 17.5% 12.4% 6.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
George Luber 7.3% 9.7% 13.1% 15.0% 17.8% 17.2% 11.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Stephen Fletcher 8.7% 13.1% 12.8% 17.7% 14.9% 15.7% 10.5% 4.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Elyse Surette-DiMuzio 2.6% 4.4% 6.3% 6.5% 10.6% 15.4% 23.3% 17.3% 9.6% 3.1% 0.9%
Paige Fagan 5.9% 7.2% 8.9% 12.3% 15.5% 19.0% 17.0% 10.0% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Earl Lin 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 3.8% 10.2% 19.6% 23.9% 22.6% 12.5%
Marissa Eklund 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 3.1% 6.9% 13.6% 19.7% 51.9%
Mikaela Donovan 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 2.2% 2.6% 3.2% 7.9% 18.0% 21.3% 27.3% 15.2%
Hanna Desilets 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 2.5% 3.8% 6.4% 14.7% 23.6% 26.8% 19.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.