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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+3.75vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.34+7.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+5.38vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.88+3.89vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.48+5.31vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.25+5.01vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.56-1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.84vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.26+1.12vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.18+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.09-0.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.68vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.14-2.66vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.77-1.69vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.44-5.20vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-9.02vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University1.25-7.34vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.32-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.75Yale University2.4215.7%1st Place
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9.66Tulane University1.344.3%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy2.165.9%1st Place
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7.89Cornell University1.888.6%1st Place
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10.31Bowdoin College1.483.6%1st Place
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11.01Tufts University1.252.9%1st Place
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5.95Boston College2.5611.7%1st Place
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8.84University of Pennsylvania1.725.5%1st Place
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10.12North Carolina State University1.264.1%1st Place
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10.25Northeastern University1.183.4%1st Place
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10.19University of South Florida1.094.8%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Los Angeles1.304.9%1st Place
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10.34Boston University1.143.6%1st Place
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12.31Northwestern University0.772.2%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University1.444.4%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.038.5%1st Place
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9.66Roger Williams University1.254.8%1st Place
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15.25SUNY Maritime College-0.321.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 15.7% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Hanes | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Ellie Maus | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Abbie Carlson | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 6.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| Bridget Groble | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 47.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.