Race 4B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Hollister Poole 16.4% 21.9% 19.9% 18.7% 12.7% 6.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
MaryClaire Kiernan 44.0% 26.4% 16.7% 9.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Luber 7.7% 9.2% 13.9% 14.6% 15.2% 19.2% 12.8% 5.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Mara Porter 10.5% 16.0% 17.5% 17.7% 18.4% 10.9% 5.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Paige Fagan 6.1% 6.7% 8.5% 11.7% 13.8% 17.6% 19.0% 11.3% 4.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Stephen Fletcher 8.6% 12.1% 14.5% 16.5% 17.4% 14.1% 9.9% 4.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Elyse Surette-DiMuzio 3.9% 5.1% 6.0% 7.0% 11.3% 16.4% 22.6% 15.8% 9.5% 1.9% 0.5%
Earl Lin 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 2.4% 5.8% 9.6% 21.0% 22.2% 21.6% 13.0%
Mikaela Donovan 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 2.6% 3.6% 7.2% 14.1% 24.0% 26.3% 17.9%
Marissa Eklund 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.8% 3.4% 8.6% 13.7% 20.8% 48.9%
Hanna Desilets 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 2.2% 3.5% 6.6% 15.2% 22.1% 28.0% 19.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.