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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.47+7.03vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+5.58vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.21vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.73+2.74vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.75+5.74vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.70+0.88vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.84+3.48vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81+2.47vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.16+0.08vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.48-1.97vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.72+0.10vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.27-2.96vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.78-2.44vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-5.56vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.29-2.39vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.74-5.05vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.44-8.91vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.52-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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7.58Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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7.21U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.74Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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6.88Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.48Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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10.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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9.08Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.03Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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11.1University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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9.04University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.56Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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8.44Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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12.61Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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10.95Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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8.09Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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14.98Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Needham | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Max Nickbarg | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Liz Dubovik | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Conor Lodge | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% |
| Christopher Ford | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| Gram Slattery | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Cushing | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% |
| Michael Booker | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Jensen | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Tom Peabody | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% |
| Colin MURPHY | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 44.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.