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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.20vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+3.08vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo2.44+3.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.77vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25-0.84vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.10+3.70vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.55-1.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.36vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.74-3.77vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-1.90vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.28-1.78vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.21+0.84vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.38-1.45vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-0.35-1.13vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-0.35-3.13vs Predicted
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17Hamilton College-0.01-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.08Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.0University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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4.16Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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9.7Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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5.73Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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5.23SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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8.1Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.22Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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11.55Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.18Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 25.8% | 21.6% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.7% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 22.8% | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 15.9% | 18.0% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 21.8% | 32.3% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 21.8% | 32.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 23.0% | 19.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.