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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.72vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+3.06vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.74+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo2.44+2.08vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55+0.84vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.77vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy1.22+2.27vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.25-3.90vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.71-1.02vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.28-0.70vs Predicted
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11Colgate University1.10-1.32vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.21+0.83vs Predicted
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13Hamilton College-0.01-0.62vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-0.35-1.10vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.38-3.63vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-0.35-3.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.06Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.25SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.08University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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5.84Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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3.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.1Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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7.98Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.3Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.68Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.83University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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12.38Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.37Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.7% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 22.9% | 21.6% | 16.0% | 15.4% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.0% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 16.7% | 22.9% | 29.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 17.7% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 21.9% | 32.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 21.9% | 32.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.