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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+4.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.67vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.19vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+1.19vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55+0.83vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy1.22+3.41vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.71+1.03vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.25-3.89vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.74-3.77vs Predicted
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10Colgate University1.10-0.28vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College-0.01+1.25vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.28-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.35+0.02vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.38-3.61vs Predicted
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16University of Toronto-0.21-3.42vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester-0.35-3.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.97University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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3.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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5.19Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.83Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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8.03Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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4.11Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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5.23SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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9.72Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.25Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.4Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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13.02University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.39Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.58University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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13.02University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 9.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 10.9% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 24.3% | 21.1% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.4% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 21.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 22.5% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 22.5% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.