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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+4.12vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.68vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.55+2.71vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.74vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.74+0.38vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo2.44+0.09vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.71+0.97vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.28+1.20vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25-4.97vs Predicted
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10Colgate University1.10-0.29vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University0.38+0.42vs Predicted
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12Hamilton College-0.01+0.46vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy1.22-3.47vs Predicted
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14University of Toronto-0.21-1.38vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.35-2.16vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-0.35-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.71Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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3.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.38SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.09University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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7.97Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.2Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.03Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.71Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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11.42Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.46Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.62University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 11.6% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 25.4% | 19.5% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 14.8% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 19.0% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 22.1% | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 23.6% | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 21.3% | 33.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 21.3% | 33.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.