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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.70vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.16vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo2.44+2.96vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+1.77vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.77+0.31vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.80vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.25-2.95vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.28+1.21vs Predicted
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9Hamilton College-0.01+3.31vs Predicted
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10Colgate University1.10-0.32vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy1.22-1.63vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.35+1.06vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-0.35-0.94vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.71-6.80vs Predicted
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16University of Toronto-0.21-3.33vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University0.38-5.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.16SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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5.96University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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5.77Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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5.31Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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3.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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4.05Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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9.21Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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12.31Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.68Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.06University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.06University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.2Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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12.67University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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11.34Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 12.7% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 9.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 24.4% | 20.3% | 17.5% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.4% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 22.8% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 21.7% | 34.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 21.7% | 34.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 19.5% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.