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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.21vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.15vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+2.14vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo2.44+2.09vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25-0.87vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy1.22+2.26vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.55-2.24vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.28+0.16vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-1.88vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.35+1.91vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.35+0.91vs Predicted
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13University of Toronto-0.21-0.16vs Predicted
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14Colgate University1.10-4.14vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.38-3.60vs Predicted
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16Hamilton College-0.01-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.15SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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5.14Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.09University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.13Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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4.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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5.76Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.16Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.12Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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9.86Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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11.4Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.18Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 26.0% | 21.7% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 9.5% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.4% | 15.1% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 20.2% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 20.2% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 16.9% | 23.3% | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 17.8% | 17.6% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 18.7% | 21.4% | 19.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.