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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.20vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+1.97vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.74+2.27vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo2.44+2.06vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.28+4.21vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.23vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.55-1.27vs Predicted
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8Colgate University1.10+1.66vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.36vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College-0.01+1.30vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.35+0.90vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.38-1.41vs Predicted
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14University of Toronto-0.21-1.23vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.35-2.10vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.71-8.01vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.77-11.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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3.97Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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5.27SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.06University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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9.21Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.73Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.66Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.3Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.59Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.77University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.99Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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5.21Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 25.7% | 21.2% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.7% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 10.0% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 21.8% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 18.9% | 35.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 18.6% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 24.7% | 28.9% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 18.9% | 35.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.