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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+3.04vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.19vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.18vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+1.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+4.34vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo2.44+0.13vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-1.81vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.28+1.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.27vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-1.88vs Predicted
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11Colgate University1.10-1.27vs Predicted
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12Hamilton College-0.01+0.41vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.35+0.01vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.38-2.61vs Predicted
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16University of Toronto-0.21-3.45vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester-0.35-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.04Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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5.19SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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3.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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5.76Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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6.13University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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5.19Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.23Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.12Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.73Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.41Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.39Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.55University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 17.7% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 8.7% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 24.9% | 21.0% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 18.5% | 22.9% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 18.8% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 22.5% | 27.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.