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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.19vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.55+3.69vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+1.02vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+1.16vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo2.44+1.13vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.26vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.74-1.74vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.35vs Predicted
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9Colgate University1.10+0.72vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-1.90vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.28-1.78vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.21+0.81vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.35+0.01vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.38-2.60vs Predicted
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15Hamilton College-0.01-2.82vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester-0.35-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.69Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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4.02Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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5.16Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.13University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.26SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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9.72Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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8.1Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.22Queen's University1.280.0%1st Place
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12.81University of Toronto-0.210.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.4Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.18Hamilton College-0.010.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Rochester-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 25.1% | 23.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 7.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 16.8% | 14.7% | 16.8% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sherar | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Kozicz | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 17.3% | 23.7% | 28.5% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Acosta | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 16.4% | 22.3% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Chang | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.