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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.01+6.73vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+5.44vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+8.40vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.34+5.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+4.26vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.29+3.79vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+4.69vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.10+5.36vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.20-1.30vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.79+0.11vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.97vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.76-5.05vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.46-4.88vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.42-2.70vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.12-3.48vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.93-8.33vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.99-6.46vs Predicted
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18Brown University2.85-10.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73U. S. Naval Academy3.017.7%1st Place
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7.44Dartmouth College2.908.5%1st Place
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11.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.462.5%1st Place
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9.49Boston College2.345.2%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.5%1st Place
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9.79Connecticut College2.294.3%1st Place
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11.69Fordham University1.983.1%1st Place
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13.36University of Rhode Island2.101.8%1st Place
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7.7Yale University3.208.3%1st Place
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10.11Boston University1.794.3%1st Place
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9.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.9%1st Place
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6.95Georgetown University2.769.1%1st Place
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8.12Tulane University2.467.3%1st Place
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11.3Roger Williams University2.423.4%1st Place
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11.52Harvard University2.123.3%1st Place
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7.67Stanford University2.937.8%1st Place
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10.54Tufts University1.994.5%1st Place
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7.89Brown University2.857.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% |
| Sophia Reineke | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| Aidan naughton | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 26.7% |
| Shawn Harvey | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Jack Reiter | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Spencer Cartwright | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
| Jack Parkin | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.