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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.87+5.52vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute2.29+3.35vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.98+0.68vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.35+1.20vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.78+1.94vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.65-1.53vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.30+1.21vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University1.49-0.33vs Predicted
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9Colgate University1.69-1.92vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-4.00vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo1.34-2.89vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-1.72+1.64vs Predicted
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13Hamilton College0.30-2.21vs Predicted
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14University of Toronto-0.16-2.43vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-1.72-2.36vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.52SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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5.35Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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3.68Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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5.2Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.94Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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4.47Fordham University2.650.1%1st Place
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8.21Columbia University1.300.1%1st Place
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7.67Syracuse University1.490.1%1st Place
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7.08Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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8.11University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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13.64University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.79Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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11.57University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.64University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.76U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Libby | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 8.1% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 21.1% | 17.5% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 13.7% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 10.5% | 66.8% | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 11.5% | 25.3% | 27.6% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 18.0% | 38.8% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 10.5% | 66.8% | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 11.7% | 85.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.