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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.35+4.17vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.30+6.06vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.98+0.62vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.65+0.46vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.87+1.64vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.78+0.91vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute2.29-1.56vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo1.34+0.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-3.17vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University1.49-2.22vs Predicted
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11Colgate University1.69-3.91vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.16-0.23vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-1.72+0.65vs Predicted
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14Hamilton College0.30-3.30vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-1.72-1.35vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.06Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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3.62Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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4.46Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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6.64SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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6.91Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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5.44Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.14University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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7.78Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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7.09Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.77University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.65University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.7Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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13.65University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.74U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schofield | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 21.2% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 15.1% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 11.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 40.2% | 14.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 11.8% | 64.2% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 12.8% | 23.7% | 25.2% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 11.8% | 64.2% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 12.5% | 84.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.