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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+2.66vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.65+2.34vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.87+3.52vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.35+1.21vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo1.34+3.10vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-0.11vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.78-0.21vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University1.49-0.32vs Predicted
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9Colgate University1.69-1.92vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute2.29-4.50vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College0.30-0.29vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.16-0.23vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30-4.60vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-1.72-0.39vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-1.72-2.39vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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4.34Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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6.52SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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5.21Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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6.79Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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7.68Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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7.08Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.5Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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10.71Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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11.77University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.4Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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13.61University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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13.61University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.74U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 21.1% | 20.3% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 15.6% | 16.9% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 24.1% | 24.3% | 7.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 41.5% | 13.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 64.3% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 64.3% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 11.6% | 84.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.