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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+2.64vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.87+4.44vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.65+1.34vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.35+1.18vs Predicted
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5Colgate University1.69+2.12vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo1.34+2.18vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University1.49+0.59vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.30+0.25vs Predicted
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9University of Toronto-0.16+2.63vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-4.02vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute2.29-5.49vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.78-4.93vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-1.72+0.66vs Predicted
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14Hamilton College0.30-3.34vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-1.72-2.34vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.64Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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6.44SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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4.34Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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5.18Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.12Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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7.59Syracuse University1.490.1%1st Place
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8.25Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.63University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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5.51Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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7.07Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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13.66University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.66Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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13.66University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.74U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 22.2% | 19.4% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 17.5% | 39.3% | 13.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 66.8% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 24.1% | 26.5% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 66.8% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 11.4% | 84.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.