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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+2.42vs Predicted
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2Colgate University1.69+4.64vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.30+4.81vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University1.49+3.35vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.35-0.03vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute2.29-0.90vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo1.34+0.64vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.65-3.81vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.87-2.80vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.30vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.72+2.54vs Predicted
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12Hamilton College0.30-1.31vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-1.72+0.54vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.10-5.37vs Predicted
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15University of Toronto-0.16-3.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.42Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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6.64Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.81Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.35Syracuse University1.490.1%1st Place
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4.97Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.1Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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7.64University of Buffalo1.340.1%1st Place
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4.19Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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6.2SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.69Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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8.63Queen's University1.100.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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14.73U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 23.6% | 20.9% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.6% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 62.6% | 15.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 22.1% | 25.8% | 7.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 62.6% | 15.9% | 0.0% |
| Will Jones | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 16.7% | 36.5% | 13.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 13.5% | 83.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.