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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+2.42vs Predicted
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2Colgate University1.69+4.67vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.87+3.16vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.65+0.18vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute2.29+0.20vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.35-1.09vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.30+0.84vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo1.34-0.21vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.43vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-1.72+3.54vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University1.49-3.66vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.10-3.37vs Predicted
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13Hamilton College0.30-2.41vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-1.72-0.46vs Predicted
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15University of Toronto-0.16-3.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.42Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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6.67Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.16SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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4.18Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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5.2Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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4.91Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.84Columbia University1.300.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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7.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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7.34Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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8.63Queen's University1.100.0%1st Place
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10.59Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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13.54University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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14.76U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 23.3% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.2% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 12.0% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 12.0% | 64.3% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Jones | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 22.0% | 24.3% | 7.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 12.0% | 64.3% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 17.5% | 35.2% | 13.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 11.3% | 85.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.