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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.65+3.03vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.98+1.27vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.35+1.79vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.87+2.01vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.30+2.62vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo1.34+1.51vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute2.29-2.03vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.78-1.64vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.73vs Predicted
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10Colgate University1.69-3.33vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College0.30-0.96vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.16-0.84vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.88-1.70vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-1.72-1.69vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-1.72-2.69vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.03Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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3.27Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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4.79Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.01SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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7.62Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.51University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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4.97Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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6.36Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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6.67Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.04Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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11.16University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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12.3Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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13.31University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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13.31University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.69U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Tell | 17.9% | 16.0% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 24.2% | 23.1% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 12.0% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 22.1% | 19.5% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 29.7% | 23.5% | 7.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 35.4% | 25.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 50.3% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 50.3% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 11.0% | 83.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.