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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.78+5.22vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.35+2.76vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo1.34+4.40vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98-0.60vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.30+2.63vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute2.29-1.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.65-2.92vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-0.69vs Predicted
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9University of Toronto-0.16+2.02vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.87-3.88vs Predicted
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11Colgate University1.69-4.39vs Predicted
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12Hamilton College0.30-1.81vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.88-0.71vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-1.72-1.70vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester-1.72-2.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-3.55-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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4.76Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.4University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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3.4Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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7.63Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.99Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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4.08Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.1%1st Place
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11.02University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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6.12SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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6.61Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.19Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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12.29Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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13.3University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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13.3University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.69U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Machum | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 10.0% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 23.9% | 19.2% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 12.0% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.7% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 16.9% | 24.8% | 21.2% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 16.5% | 35.3% | 25.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 50.4% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 50.4% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 83.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.