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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.78+5.42vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.35+2.90vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.98+0.48vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute2.29+1.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.68vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.87+0.27vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.65-2.77vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo1.34-0.37vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.30-1.22vs Predicted
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10Hamilton College0.30+0.18vs Predicted
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11Colgate University1.69-4.23vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.16-0.76vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-1.72-0.62vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.88-2.76vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-3.55-1.31vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester-1.72-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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4.9Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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3.48Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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5.11Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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5.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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6.27SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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4.23Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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7.63University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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7.78Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.18Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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6.77Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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11.24University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.38University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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12.24Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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14.69U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
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13.38University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Machum | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 9.9% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 22.8% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 15.7% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 20.3% | 22.1% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 26.1% | 25.6% | 8.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 52.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 34.7% | 22.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 11.8% | 82.7% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 52.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.