Race 10B

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stewart Draheim 24.0% 19.1% 14.5% 12.5% 11.4% 7.3% 4.3% 3.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cody Stansky 9.9% 13.2% 12.0% 13.1% 11.2% 9.2% 11.0% 6.6% 6.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Schofield 12.2% 11.1% 13.1% 11.4% 11.3% 9.7% 10.9% 9.8% 5.9% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Watterson 9.3% 9.3% 10.3% 10.8% 9.7% 9.8% 12.6% 9.1% 8.7% 6.1% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Machum 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 7.4% 8.5% 8.6% 11.1% 12.1% 10.5% 10.7% 6.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Arthur Libby 6.4% 8.0% 7.8% 7.9% 8.4% 13.3% 11.0% 10.2% 11.0% 8.1% 5.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth Tell 15.0% 15.1% 15.9% 12.9% 12.1% 8.7% 6.4% 6.1% 4.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Miller 4.2% 4.0% 4.8% 6.1% 6.5% 8.1% 8.7% 10.7% 12.0% 15.2% 12.0% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Margaret Meehan 3.3% 4.2% 4.3% 5.4% 7.8% 8.5% 7.6% 10.4% 13.1% 14.6% 12.0% 7.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Nathan Arndt 1.2% 1.7% 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 3.0% 4.4% 4.4% 7.6% 11.1% 20.7% 23.7% 11.7% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Emily Bicks 5.6% 6.4% 6.5% 8.4% 8.7% 11.0% 7.6% 11.4% 10.6% 9.5% 9.2% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Karl Kane-Collery 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 2.7% 4.6% 8.4% 14.4% 28.6% 24.9% 7.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Patrick Stege 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 8.1% 15.5% 35.2% 25.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Liza Gerwig 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 3.2% 7.3% 20.5% 50.6% 13.0% 0.0%
Liza Gerwig 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 3.2% 7.3% 20.5% 50.6% 13.0% 0.0%
Jake Mocci 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 2.5% 11.4% 83.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.