← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University2.98+2.50vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.35+2.89vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College1.87+3.16vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University2.65+0.24vs Predicted
-
5University of Buffalo1.34+2.69vs Predicted
-
6Queen's University1.78+0.51vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute2.29-1.88vs Predicted
-
8Colgate University1.69-1.25vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-3.45vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University1.30-2.15vs Predicted
-
11Hamilton College0.30-0.83vs Predicted
-
12University of Toronto-0.16-0.74vs Predicted
-
13University of Rochester-1.72+0.38vs Predicted
-
15Syracuse University-0.88-2.76vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Military Academy-3.55-1.32vs Predicted
-
17University of Rochester-1.72-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.5Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
-
4.89Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
-
6.16SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
-
4.24Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
-
7.69University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
-
6.51Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
-
5.12Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
-
6.75Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
-
5.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
-
7.85Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
-
10.17Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
-
11.26University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
-
13.38University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
-
12.24Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
-
14.68U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
-
13.38University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 21.9% | 21.6% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 10.7% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.0% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 5.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 12.3% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 6.4% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 21.8% | 21.0% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 26.8% | 24.7% | 9.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 52.7% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 7.7% | 19.6% | 35.5% | 22.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 11.8% | 82.5% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 52.7% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.