Race 12B

north-fall-1

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stewart Draheim 23.6% 19.7% 15.6% 12.5% 8.6% 7.4% 5.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Schofield 11.4% 11.7% 15.1% 11.9% 11.0% 10.2% 9.2% 6.6% 6.2% 3.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arthur Libby 7.7% 6.9% 9.3% 9.8% 8.1% 10.6% 10.2% 10.7% 9.9% 10.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Machum 6.2% 7.1% 8.4% 8.8% 8.3% 10.2% 9.6% 10.6% 10.3% 10.5% 7.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth Tell 14.6% 15.2% 13.7% 12.5% 13.4% 10.1% 7.7% 4.9% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emily Bicks 4.8% 7.2% 5.8% 8.0% 8.8% 8.5% 11.5% 13.5% 11.1% 9.3% 7.1% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Watterson 10.0% 8.9% 9.3% 10.3% 11.9% 11.8% 10.6% 7.7% 7.5% 6.7% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cody Stansky 11.2% 12.1% 11.6% 10.7% 11.1% 9.9% 9.5% 8.8% 7.6% 4.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Miller 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 6.0% 7.6% 8.8% 9.0% 9.8% 12.9% 14.0% 11.6% 6.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Margaret Meehan 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 5.2% 7.1% 5.8% 10.0% 11.5% 11.9% 15.8% 11.1% 7.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Arndt 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.6% 1.5% 4.1% 3.6% 6.0% 6.6% 9.8% 22.8% 19.8% 14.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Karl Kane-Collery 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9% 6.0% 7.2% 13.7% 27.3% 24.7% 9.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Liza Gerwig 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.6% 3.6% 8.5% 17.0% 52.4% 13.5% 0.0%
Patrick Stege 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.9% 2.5% 2.9% 7.7% 19.9% 35.5% 22.0% 2.9% 0.0%
Liza Gerwig 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.6% 3.6% 8.5% 17.0% 52.4% 13.5% 0.0%
Jake Mocci 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 2.8% 11.9% 82.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.