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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+2.48vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.35+2.85vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.65+1.21vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.78+2.47vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute2.29+0.24vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.69+0.75vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-1.43vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.87-1.72vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo1.34-1.37vs Predicted
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10University of Toronto-0.16+1.11vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.72+2.26vs Predicted
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12Hamilton College0.30-1.63vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.88-1.66vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-1.72-1.74vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-3.55-1.28vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.30-9.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.48Roger Williams University2.980.2%1st Place
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4.85Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.21Fordham University2.650.2%1st Place
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6.47Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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5.24Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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6.75Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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6.28SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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7.63University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Toronto-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.26University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.37Hamilton College0.300.0%1st Place
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12.34Syracuse University-0.880.0%1st Place
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13.26University of Rochester-1.720.0%1st Place
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14.72U. S. Military Academy-3.550.0%1st Place
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7.72Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 24.3% | 17.5% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 11.2% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 16.0% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Watterson | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Kane-Collery | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 19.8% | 50.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Arndt | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 19.9% | 24.6% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Stege | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 36.4% | 25.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Liza Gerwig | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 19.8% | 50.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Mocci | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 11.4% | 83.7% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.