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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.40+9.73vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.75+5.45vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+4.00vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+7.64vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.21+6.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+0.90vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.73-0.52vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.58vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.34+1.30vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-2.85vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.15+1.05vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-6.22vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.61-5.83vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-1.97vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.92-5.02vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.57-4.39vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.07-6.32vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.73Brown University2.403.7%1st Place
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7.45Dartmouth College2.758.5%1st Place
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7.0Georgetown University2.759.6%1st Place
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11.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.002.5%1st Place
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11.31Tulane University2.212.9%1st Place
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6.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.2%1st Place
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6.48Yale University2.739.2%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Naval Academy2.162.5%1st Place
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10.3Boston College2.344.0%1st Place
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7.15University of Rhode Island2.788.5%1st Place
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12.05Tufts University2.152.6%1st Place
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5.78Harvard University3.0511.8%1st Place
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7.17Stanford University2.619.6%1st Place
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12.03Boston University1.392.0%1st Place
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9.98Connecticut College1.924.9%1st Place
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11.61Fordham University1.573.1%1st Place
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10.68Roger Williams University2.073.4%1st Place
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11.15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Charles Carraway | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.8% |
| Jack DeNatale | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 13.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.