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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.93+6.25vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+4.54vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+8.47vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.99+7.57vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.76+1.40vs Predicted
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6Florida State University1.95+4.61vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.95+3.05vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.27+0.25vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.46-1.21vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.73-0.08vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.08-1.51vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.05-2.54vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.98-2.17vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.80vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.79-5.72vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.31-8.01vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.81-6.43vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25Stanford University2.938.6%1st Place
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6.54Yale University2.7310.4%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.9%1st Place
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11.57North Carolina State University1.993.4%1st Place
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6.4Georgetown University2.7610.3%1st Place
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10.61Florida State University1.954.5%1st Place
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10.05Connecticut College1.954.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Hawaii2.276.7%1st Place
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7.79Tulane University2.466.7%1st Place
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9.92Webb Institute1.734.0%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College2.085.4%1st Place
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9.46George Washington University2.055.1%1st Place
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10.83Fordham University1.984.5%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.6%1st Place
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9.28Boston University1.794.8%1st Place
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7.99Harvard University2.316.9%1st Place
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10.57Old Dominion University1.814.2%1st Place
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15.34SUNY Maritime College0.411.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Parkin | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 7.9% |
| Scott Harris | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Jack Reiter | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Walter Henry | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Matt Logue | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Henry Burnes | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 50.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.