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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.24vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.76+4.17vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.98vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+6.73vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.79+4.22vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.12+4.46vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.46+0.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+3.59vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.05+0.41vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.08-0.62vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.95-1.14vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-2.31vs Predicted
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13Florida State University1.95-2.61vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.99-2.52vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.81-4.38vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.93-9.04vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii2.27-8.97vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Yale University2.7311.6%1st Place
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6.17Georgetown University2.7611.6%1st Place
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7.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.9%1st Place
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10.73Fordham University1.983.4%1st Place
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9.22Boston University1.796.3%1st Place
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10.46Harvard University2.124.2%1st Place
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7.39Tulane University2.468.0%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.5%1st Place
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9.41George Washington University2.054.7%1st Place
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9.38Bowdoin College2.085.2%1st Place
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9.86Connecticut College1.954.5%1st Place
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9.69Webb Institute1.734.5%1st Place
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10.39Florida State University1.954.0%1st Place
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11.48North Carolina State University1.992.9%1st Place
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10.62Old Dominion University1.813.8%1st Place
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6.96Stanford University2.938.9%1st Place
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8.03University of Hawaii2.276.4%1st Place
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15.39SUNY Maritime College0.410.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% |
| Matt Logue | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Walter Henry | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Scott Harris | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.