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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.27+6.75vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.20+4.59vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.81+7.42vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+6.61vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.73+4.47vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.93+0.98vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.79+2.07vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.99+3.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+2.24vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.12+0.33vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.33vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.09-3.13vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.08-3.90vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.95-3.80vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.05-5.81vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.78vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.95-7.09vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.46-10.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75University of Hawaii2.277.6%1st Place
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6.59Yale University3.2010.4%1st Place
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10.42Old Dominion University1.814.2%1st Place
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10.61Fordham University1.983.6%1st Place
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9.47Webb Institute1.735.1%1st Place
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6.98Stanford University2.938.4%1st Place
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9.07Boston University1.796.0%1st Place
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11.36North Carolina State University1.992.6%1st Place
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11.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.9%1st Place
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10.33Harvard University2.124.1%1st Place
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7.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
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8.87Georgetown University2.096.7%1st Place
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9.1Bowdoin College2.085.5%1st Place
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10.2Florida State University1.954.5%1st Place
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9.19George Washington University2.055.0%1st Place
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15.22SUNY Maritime College0.411.2%1st Place
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9.91Connecticut College1.955.0%1st Place
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7.01Tulane University2.469.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Shawn Harvey | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Porter Kavle | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Scott Harris | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 8.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 7.5% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 4.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Edward Cook | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 49.8% |
| Walter Henry | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Cameron Giblin | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.