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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.01+6.14vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.45+6.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.75vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+4.52vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.69vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.85+1.15vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.90-0.18vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.17vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.90+2.37vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.10+2.63vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.02-0.51vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.34-1.66vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-2.43vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.97-3.02vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.03-4.22vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.23-6.01vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.20-8.84vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.06-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy3.017.9%1st Place
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8.3Roger Williams University2.456.9%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4810.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Miami2.326.3%1st Place
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8.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.2%1st Place
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7.15Brown University2.859.2%1st Place
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6.82Dartmouth College2.908.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Pennsylvania2.426.9%1st Place
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11.37Cornell University1.903.0%1st Place
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12.63University of Rhode Island2.102.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Wisconsin2.024.5%1st Place
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10.34Boston College2.343.8%1st Place
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10.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.463.8%1st Place
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10.98Jacksonville University1.973.2%1st Place
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10.78Tufts University2.033.9%1st Place
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9.99College of Charleston2.235.1%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.207.9%1st Place
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14.16University of Michigan1.061.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Lilly Myers | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% |
| Aidan naughton | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 16.5% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| Jake Vickers | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Charlotte Rose | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% |
| Alex Fasolo | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Brandon Geller | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| David Eastwood | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Sherman Thompson | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 33.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.