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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin2.02+8.42vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+4.13vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.23+5.81vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+5.45vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.90vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+4.88vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.45+0.20vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.03+1.49vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy2.05-0.58vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.45vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.34-3.49vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.39-1.97vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.32-5.45vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.90-3.82vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.45-8.50vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy0.69-1.91vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.06-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.42University of Wisconsin2.024.1%1st Place
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6.13Brown University2.8511.5%1st Place
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8.81College of Charleston2.235.6%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.5%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania2.429.8%1st Place
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10.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.662.9%1st Place
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7.2Roger Williams University2.457.1%1st Place
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9.49Tufts University2.034.0%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Military Academy2.055.9%1st Place
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7.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
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7.51Boston College2.347.7%1st Place
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10.03Jacksonville University1.394.2%1st Place
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7.55University of Miami2.327.8%1st Place
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10.18Cornell University1.903.8%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Santa Barbara2.4510.7%1st Place
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14.09U. S. Naval Academy0.691.4%1st Place
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12.88University of Michigan1.061.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Spencer | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Brandon Geller | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Alex Fasolo | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| James Paul | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Sophia Reineke | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Myers | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 5.5% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack Carminati | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 40.6% |
| Sherman Thompson | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.