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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.08+8.71vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+7.74vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.20vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.31+3.96vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.46+2.62vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.29+2.81vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.76-0.73vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.98+3.07vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.20-2.11vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii2.27-1.76vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+0.33vs Predicted
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12Florida State University1.95-1.49vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.79-3.76vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.93-6.88vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.81-4.24vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.89-5.70vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.54vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.99-6.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.71Bowdoin College2.085.5%1st Place
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9.74Webb Institute1.734.2%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.4%1st Place
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7.96Harvard University2.316.5%1st Place
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7.62Tulane University2.468.2%1st Place
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8.81Connecticut College2.296.1%1st Place
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6.27Georgetown University2.7611.9%1st Place
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11.07Fordham University1.983.4%1st Place
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6.89Yale University3.207.4%1st Place
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8.24University of Hawaii2.277.3%1st Place
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11.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.9%1st Place
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10.51Florida State University1.954.0%1st Place
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9.24Boston University1.795.1%1st Place
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7.12Stanford University2.938.3%1st Place
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10.76Old Dominion University1.813.9%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University1.894.3%1st Place
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15.46SUNY Maritime College0.411.1%1st Place
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11.78North Carolina State University1.992.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Lukens | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Henry Burnes | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Cameron Giblin | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| Shawn Harvey | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Bastien Rasse | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Jack Parkin | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Matthew Priebe | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 51.6% |
| Scott Harris | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.