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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.07+8.81vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+5.71vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+7.67vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.70+5.33vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.97vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.56+1.78vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+0.52vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.16+2.61vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.12+3.32vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.15+1.06vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.29-1.92vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.75-5.73vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.78-6.77vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.60-4.12vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.93-5.45vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-3.71vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66-5.68vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.55-7.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.81Roger Williams University2.075.1%1st Place
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7.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.1%1st Place
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10.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.4%1st Place
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9.33Cornell University1.705.7%1st Place
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8.97University of Pennsylvania1.906.1%1st Place
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7.78Boston College2.567.3%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.178.1%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Naval Academy2.163.2%1st Place
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12.32College of Charleston1.123.2%1st Place
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11.06Tufts University2.153.7%1st Place
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9.08Brown University2.295.5%1st Place
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6.27Dartmouth College2.7510.4%1st Place
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6.23University of Rhode Island2.7811.2%1st Place
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9.88University of Wisconsin1.604.8%1st Place
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9.55University of Miami1.935.1%1st Place
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12.29University of Michigan1.122.5%1st Place
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11.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.663.6%1st Place
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10.6Jacksonville University1.553.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wood | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 16.6% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Olivia Belda | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 17.0% |
| John Ped | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% |
| Matthew King | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.