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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.15+9.97vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.29+7.68vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+7.62vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.07+5.46vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.34vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.77vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78-0.78vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.93+1.31vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66+2.42vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.39vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.75-4.65vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-2.26vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.56-5.31vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.70-4.33vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.55-4.21vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-3.82vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.90-7.98vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston1.12-5.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.97Tufts University2.153.5%1st Place
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9.68Brown University2.295.4%1st Place
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10.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.0%1st Place
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9.46Roger Williams University2.075.8%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.178.6%1st Place
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7.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.1%1st Place
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6.22University of Rhode Island2.7810.2%1st Place
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9.31University of Miami1.935.4%1st Place
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11.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.663.0%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Naval Academy2.164.2%1st Place
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6.35Dartmouth College2.759.8%1st Place
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9.74University of Wisconsin1.604.2%1st Place
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7.69Boston College2.568.0%1st Place
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9.67Cornell University1.704.8%1st Place
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10.79Jacksonville University1.553.8%1st Place
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12.18University of Michigan1.122.8%1st Place
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9.02University of Pennsylvania1.905.7%1st Place
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12.39College of Charleston1.123.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% |
| Olivia Belda | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| John Ped | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Matthew King | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 17.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.