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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+5.32vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.97+7.07vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.07+6.51vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+3.38vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.14+4.01vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.15+5.17vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38-0.18vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-0.13vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.40+0.77vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+0.73vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.12+1.03vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.93-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.70-2.42vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University-1.38-3.21vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.59-5.11vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66-4.78vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-4.70vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College2.38-10.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32University of Rhode Island2.7810.9%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Naval Academy1.975.0%1st Place
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9.51Roger Williams University2.074.6%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.178.0%1st Place
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9.01Boston College2.145.7%1st Place
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11.17Tufts University2.153.2%1st Place
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6.82Cornell University2.3810.2%1st Place
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7.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.3%1st Place
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9.77Brown University2.405.0%1st Place
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10.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.5%1st Place
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12.03College of Charleston1.123.0%1st Place
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9.4University of Miami1.934.8%1st Place
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10.58University of Wisconsin1.704.7%1st Place
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10.79Jacksonville University-1.384.1%1st Place
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9.89University of Pennsylvania1.595.5%1st Place
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11.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.663.3%1st Place
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12.3University of Michigan1.122.4%1st Place
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7.14Dartmouth College2.389.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gray Benson | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Robert Hunter | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
| Bridget Green | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Jack Murphy | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 16.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Emily Allen | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| John Ped | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 17.6% |
| William Michels | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.